Jeremy Bearer-Friend, The George Washington University Law School
Lee Lockwood, Department of Economics, University of Virginia
Elena Patel, University of Utah and Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
Michael Strain, American Enterprise Institute (Invited)
Forecasts about AI and employment span an enormous range, from modest productivity gains to a durable break in the relationship between labor and income, and the tax system has a stake at every point along that range. Labor income and human consumption are the two bases that fund the modern fiscal state; if either narrows materially, what replaces it becomes a tax question rather than a technology one. That debate is no longer abstract. Proposals now before Congress fall into three families: public ownership, as in the American A.I. Sovereign Wealth Fund Act (S. 4825), under which an excise tax would be satisfied in newly issued equity until Treasury holds half of every applicable company; denial of existing incentives to data centers, including bonus depreciation, opportunity zone eligibility, and REIT rent treatment; and new excise bases, from gross receipts to a per-kilowatt-hour levy on electricity to a tax on tokens indexed to the unemployment rate. The panel takes up what the labor market evidence actually shows, what a serious public finance response would look like if the more aggressive forecasts prove correct, and the question commentators across the ideological spectrum keep returning to — whether the existing corporate, capital gains, and property tax systems already reach these returns. Attendees interested in the drafting of the specific proposals should see the breakout session, Taxing AI: Drafting Problems in the New Proposals.